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Welcome to the Princeton election forecast

Welcome to the Princeton election forecast

Thank you for participating in our election forecast study. This is part of a project being conducted by researchers at Princeton University.


Each question requests your estimate of the chances of an event, for example, that one of the candidates wins a certain state. You can enter your estimate by moving a slider and then pressing the button underneath the question to record your answer. Higher chances should be reflected by numbers closer to 100 percent; lower chances by numbers closer to 0 percent.

Some of the events are of the form X AND Y. These occur only when both X and Y occur. Other events are of the form X OR Y. They occur only when one or both of X and Y occur. You will also encounter events of the form X SUPPOSING Y. In such cases, assume that Y occurs and then give your estimate of the chances that X also occurs based on this assumption.

As background information, we have included a map of results for the LAST presidential election in 2004 (red Republican, blue Democratic). You can consult it or ignore it, as you like.

It will be helpful if you complete all 28 questions, but your work will still be valuable to us if you choose to quit early.

Prizes will be awarded!

Please leave us your email address if you wish to be considered for a prize (a $50 Amazon gift certificate). Winners will be chosen on the basis of the number of questions answered and their accuracy in light of the election results. (After prize winners have been selected and notified, all email addresses sent to us will be erased and will be used for no other purpose.)

Getting Started!

Before starting, please tell us a little about yourself by responding to the queries on the next page. The question about knowledge of politics should be answered by comparing yourself to a typical voter.

I have read the instructions.